November 4, held the last elections of the Obama presidency, the midterms and midterm elections in

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November 4, held the last elections of the Obama presidency, the midterms and midterm elections in Congress, groundhog who are renewing the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. House Republican is and should remain, but the stakes of this election is the Senate, which could tip Republican, putting Congress entirely in the hands of the Republican party. Note that it is also possible that the final outcome is not known until the beginning of January 2016, when the second round in some states the specific voting groundhog rules, namely Georgia (an early version of this article been published by Le Monde here, I also analyzed the results and their implications on the show Deciphering RFI, listen to here). The issue is far from negligible for several reasons. groundhog On the one hand it has been two cycles that Republicans miss the majority in the Senate yet within their reach because of too extreme candidates; this time they were more cautious and leadership has imposed in most cases personalities better position to win. This is what makes them possible, even probable victory. Obama also beats record unpopularity and the midterms are generally unfavorable to power. The challenge is real and secondly because, while it has become commonplace to refer to the paralysis in Washington due to the obstruction of Congress, this paralysis is due more to the division of the Congress, between two rooms opposite edges , that the division of power between the legislative and executive branches. The American system is not the French system: the system of checks and balances defined by the US Constitution gives each power clean and independent powers: to put it differently, a Republican Congress would be able to impose his will on certain subjects the president, including foreign policy. Historically the most ineffective Congress were divided Congress. Conversely, the division groundhog of power is common groundhog and even more the rule for decades in the United States. So since the end of the Cold War, the White House and Congress were not of the same political edge for eight years (over 26). Republican control groundhog of both houses of Congress could have an impact on several key international issues: negotiations with Iran and any agreement; groundhog trade negotiations on the Transpacific groundhog Treaty as well as the Treaty Transatlantic; aid to Ukraine; the US presence in Afghanistan; the relationship with China and therefore the evolution of the strategy of the pivot, if the Republicans persist in their desire to sell some equipment to Taiwan. We could also see a challenge of declining groundhog Pentagon budget, a new vote on the use of military force against Syria and the Islamic State group in general, groundhog potentially authorization for a new "long war" that would an impact beyond the Obama presidency; even a change in US strategy with a return of US troops on the ground (but it is doubtful that a majority of Republicans ready to take responsibility groundhog for such a change). The two issues on which Congress should certainly act with the greatest impact - but for different reasons and with different consequences even opposite: Iran and trade negotiations. Two key issues for the rest of the world but also the legacy of Obama on foreign policy because redefinition of the security architecture in the Middle East; and strategic reorientation during groundhog the "pivot" to Asia. On Iran, where the harsh positions of the US Congress is known for various groundhog reasons that will not grow here, it is likely that the Senate will follow the House Republican who voted for tougher sanctions despite negotiations (by 400 votes against 20). Such a scenario groundhog is to wait especially if negotiations fail to 24th November. The majority of Republican senators is already favorable, besides a number groundhog of Democrats. So far, only Harry Reid, majority leader in the Senate, was able to prevent this vote to protect the negotiations. Senate Republican majority could thus quickly pass new sanctions. Conversely, if an agreement is actually signed on November 24, it necessarily prévoiera groundhog an easing of sanctions. All the skill of the Obama administration will then be to